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Why it is worth to taking a risk


Walking through a party at Posh W Hotel in Beverly Hills, California, Jonathan Baals is frequently contacted by strangers from all over the country. They have read their books, they subscribe to their company’s website, they carefully put each word in ether. Some practically unconscious on the occasion of shaking his hand.

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS PLAYERS are between 25 and 35 years old and older. Most of the curious, smart sports fans and since they were kids, most of them lose money (in roughly 90 percent of conservative estimates), but most players here, however, around the neon-burnt pool in the evening on summer. Drink and Horse de Ouvers are not among the food-90 percent of the people. Almost all players are experts who study this subject religiously, while analyzing every possible variable for every minute decision, stare at numbers and charts for hours. Many people think of themselves, play thousands of dollars a night. If it was Wall Street, then it would be the films of innovative-biting traders.
This pool party is a way to meet players before the big tournament tomorrow, where the first place award will be $ 100,000. Because the daily fantasy games are present on the Internet, one of the many good players in the world has met only a handful in each other when they congratulate each other, however, it often happens with the familiarity of friendship for a long time. Ask about parents, siblings and other important people. They recall that they used to compete in Las Vegas, Miami and Mexico several times together. They reduce the importance of this one-day tournament, seeing that the money will be good, but it is agreeing that they also like the opportunity to get together. It may seem like a brain brain, like pure madness, but it is real in a tournament with such a wager, you can think that the stretch will be strained, but here all are laughing and smiling. Even then, they do not discuss their lineup for tomorrow.
“Amateur asks who you are picking up all the time,” says Bels. “But never professional.”

The bales and their close friends do not think about each other at all. In fact, whenever possible they help each other. Because they all live in different parts of the country – hair in Philadelphia; Others in Colorado and California- they often do not meet together. He is also using Los Angeles as an extended bachelor party for a single person at the end of this week. Most participants of the tournament are W.M. , Bales and his colleagues have rented the pool bungalow on the legendary Chaitou Marmont in Sunset Boulevard – at the end of the week, paying some money in the neighborhood of $ 10,000.
With the logo for the Forefrontal Lab, we wear shorts and T-shirts – a daily fantasy sports company that runs along with friends and caps a previous ball. She is 30 years old, with thaxat and muscle, a list-ready smile. Every time she feels comfortable she is mostly silent, but when she talks, it immediately becomes clear that she is the best person in the room, no matter what room she is in.
When strangers presented themselves in a meeting and greetings in Bellas, thank them not for simple suggestions to play games. They thank them for changing the way they think about the world. The guy with a long, wide chest from New Jersey communicates with Balas and says how he plays, the mistake he started, when Bells and his site helped them improve, and how some of his girlfriend Started less bets game
“He is really joining this,” Man tells Balas and his friends, “He is actually starting to understand that we will sit here and talk about it at dinner. It is very good, and a lot of people Thank you. ”
Before returning to Chateau, the bulls group talks briefly for a few minutes, then resolves the pool to ensure that they have not missed any food or drink stations. He points out that in tomorrow’s tournament, they will probably look at several different strategies deployed, and everyone can be difficult to predict.

“Data is a small part of it, it’s about deciding to do it with you.”

“There is a small part of this kind of data,” says Bells. “What you decide to do with it.”
The bull will decide to do with the data in the next 24 hours whether he will leave California to $ 100,000 or not.
If you have seen football, baseball or basketball in the last two years, then perhaps you have seen ads for daily fantasy sites draft kids and Fandom. The daily fantasy game uses the same model as the traditional fantasy game – where participants chose players from different teams, make their imagination roster and earn points for their players’ statistical performance – but It is thrown into hypertrophy
Think of it as a daily share portfolio competition, in which players have been given a certain amount to invest, and whoever raises the shares that day they win best on that day. Except for the stock, they choose players in different sports. (Tournament in Los Angeles is a baseball tournament.)
Entering the tournament can cost from 25 cents to $ 10,000, and some players enter into many teams to increase the chances of winning. This tournament costs $ 10,000 for the buyer. Sometimes a tournament puts 15 people against each other, and sometimes it is 15,000, the amount of payments ranges from hundreds to millions, in which there are hosting sites containing approximately 10 percent of the total utensil.
This means the best fiction players – 1.3 percent who allegedly win 91 percent – in every major game every real player knows everything about every real player. They use complex predictive algorithms for model of all data. Some fantasy players-sports theory experts-themselves do not know much about the real game. They can not tell you how many sets are in the tennis set or who are Montana, but they know the number and the possibility. Each game is translated into every moment of data-yards, innings, 3-pointers and so on. This data has been translated into fictional numbers. And if you have enough points, then they translate into money
There is no way to know how many people play fantasy games, but the estimated 57 million North Americans took part in some capacity last year, and each of the two largest daily fantasy sports companies is worth more than $ 1 billion. Investors include Fox Sports, NBC Sports, Time Warner and Google.
There is a lot in the world of finance, the complexity and complexity of everyday imagination games can sound like an external voice. Some words- such as fish and shark-poker-were made (a fish is a newbie, and the shark is the expert who will take the money from that newbie.) A player who has lost it and makes a bad decision as a result It is said, “on the inclination”. The exponential growth game of daily fiction came around at the same time because the popularity of online poker declined, and many top daily fiction players were also top poker players.
You can tell a fantasy player that he is “stacking” a team, which happens when someone raises many players from the same team and hopes that the team has a really good day, or the team “Vanishing”, which means that no team from opposite team, like any crowd, results in that moment and their expectation starts releasing chemicals in their brain. Other players, like girls, do not like to watch.
“I do not like sweating,” she says in the verbatim of the daily fantasy
Whether there is daily gestation sports gambling and whether it (or should be) legal and regulated, there is a debate between the state legislatures and the courts. The advocating poker players have argued for years only. They say that it is often only a few professionals near the top of the scoreboard in bigger competitions, and they call daily imagination a game of skill, on the other hand, it is still a game organizing result, winning money or losing money Is a person who looks like a lot of gambling.

“there is nothing gambling in life in this gambling. Every thing that you do in life, there is some risk and some reward.

“There is gambling in life in gambling,” says Bell. “Everything you do in life, there is some risk and some reward.”

How Belle thinks she studied philosophy at the Mulhailberg College of Pennsylvania, where her senior paper argued that as a reality we know that this is probably a simulation. (Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk recently said something like this at a code conference.) Although the Arkis live in the Philadelphia Eagles area, they are always a big Dallas Cowboy fan. He is probably the only team that really has roots for real life, he says. After college, he began to analyze cowboy games, breaking every game into 50 different variables- “for fun” Then email it to each person in the Cowboy Front Office for your analysis.
Soon, he took blogging jobs for various stores including the Dallas Cowboys website, writing thousands of thousands of words every day on the day of analysis. They say, “I knew I could not sustain that production for a very long time.”
At that time he had started playing the daily fantasy football, he found his love of statistical analysis with his philosophical affinity for game theory. The hair was not found early in online poker, which was very low internationally – when some of his friends earned a lot of money and did not regret. Before most Americans in America had heard of the fantasy games, bales were studying it with their rationality of a particularly cool brand.
He saw how statistical categories were weighted and how the payments were made in various competitions. They realized that their goal was not only to earn the highest score in these big battle royal, but to give a score to the score that others are not scoring. It sounds intuitive, but it is not. Some athletes, on the basis of their previous performance, will be given the grace to show more lines to score more points- but if you choose the same as someone else, then both of you get the same points And none of you is close to winning. You want the athletes who perform better than your opponents
To use the quick poker analogy: A pair of kings, generally speaking, is a better start hand than the appropriate eight and nine, because a pair of kings is more likely to win one hand. But if you have eight appropriate, and have to change it directly or in flush, then you can win a bigger, more attractive hand
Such thinking has created millions of dollars in the hair over the years. This has also made them an authority on the fictional game. They have achieved success in other enterprises. Every year, for every game, he publishes a new book of insights, such as Factory Football for Smart People he and his friends have installed KalpanaBlubs, which not only provides the most up-to-date roster information, Gives the interface to analyze and analyze any number of data. (This means that most of the days are circulating on the number of scrolls in many computer monitors.)

In the beginning of the last two football seasons, there was a flood of TV commercials for the daily fantasy games. This increased the number of players, which means that the fish and more players are looking for the shore. At one point, the bulls say that the Fentallabs was pulling for $ 220,000 per month. Dallas Mavericks owner and shark tank star Mark Cuba soon invested.
Cuba says about the founders of the fictional lob, “They are super smart in an area that is going to grow fast” “They are doing really well, and I think that is expected to continue.”
Chateau Marmont is a prestigious Hollywood milestone, which is full of history of celebrities, who behave badly. This Vivek Bazar Lead Zeppelin drummer once drove his bike through the lobby. There was light public dissolution in Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan. This is the place where John Bellushi Overdose, built almost a century ago, is the whole hotel, similar to a French charity. When a group of 10 and 10 of his friends, including a younger brother-in-law from the pool party, has a white Rolls-Royce park near the entrance. Attendees welcome groups to name
Inside the bungalow, the Bachelor Party starts earnestly in the earnest, there are celebrations of the red plastic cups and the groom to perform the various performances of the abundant toasts and young men, celebrating their friend and their friendship. The word goes out that someone had first seen Charlieze Theron in the hotel bar, but when the group comes, no one (not recognizable) is in sight of celebrities
There are iron chandeliers in the Marmont Bar, pointing to the archway and wooden beams around the ceiling are exposed. The grand piano has a record player and a crate of vinyl albums collected for the last five decades. The whole space looks like some classic photo setting which you can not remember
The bull sits on a table, which is away from the crowds and trunks at the old age of $ 22. He is soon talking about how much society reduces predictive modeling, to determine what kind of player Uses statistical analysis can remove your emotional bias from the equation, they say. Lots of people can break this way, he explains how some of the top daily fiction players will make better general managers than Pro-GM in Pro Sports. In some cases, they can make better NFL coaches, they also say.
“Just look at the punting,” says Bels, shaking his head. “If you are going out of numbers, you are almost never going to the pants, you are going to go down to the fourth for this. The situation of the area is in excess.You are also going to run it hard You are passing almost everyone down. ”
NFL coaches do not follow these matrix?
“It all comes down to emotions,” says Bels. “They can not take the feelings out of it fear that what people will say if this does not work, so one day a coach will do this, and after that they will do all this for a long time.”

He emphasized that the predictive modeling could be much more than the scope of the game. Potential uses are infinite, they say. Think about criminal justice, where a court can determine the punishment on the basis of a system that removes human prejudice or think of a medical field, in which an algorithm is one day compared to a doctor who has 20 years of experience Can diagnose more accuracy. It’s about removing that emotional element
This worldview means that the hair does not have to work on the results of the decisions of their daily imagination, even if it is spending as much money, it will not be so similar to that of many people. Once he had lost $ 37,000 a weekend

“At this time, losing $ 10,000 looks like a hamburger from McDonald’s.”

“At this point, losing $ 10,000 looks like a hamburger on McDonald’s,” he says. It does not say that he thinks as a $ 10,000 crack but rather the acceptance of the fact that you need food, the risk that the village and the people see in the same way, high bets are a simple fact of life.
Do not tell your opponents along with the perspective of everyday fantasy games – the more they lose, the less money is lost, the more often they do not win in the tournament. But when he wins, the winds are big, usually more than enough for the loss. But it also means that when he wins he is not particularly excited, either

After some time the winner and feel lost? they are the same.

After some time the winner and feel lost?
They say, “they are the same”
If you know the obstacles and payments, then create an account for the price and deviation of the value, and play it the same way, then, over long periods of time, the probabilities play and over time, today a win is similar to tomorrow’s loss is.
Eventually the conversation is under the winds, and it’s time for the bed. Hairy day is big day

The next morning, professional baseball players are awake all over the country, ready to play. Players await daily imagery and check any last minute roster adjustments. Up to 10 AM, Bales is looking at the weather report on the East Coast and pulling the image of the radar on his computer. Large summer storms near some different ballparks can affect many sports.
The weather plays an important role in daily fictional games, not only do the villages have to consider that what some different players did in the past, but also that the game will be completely complete. In baseball, rain is not rare at times, but in daily fantasy baseball, if your pitcher does not play today, then you do not get an over; You lose on that occasion for the occasion (The fact is that you have to set your lineup anytime before the start of the initial games, even when your players are in the game after that day, then this case Makes it even more complex.)
“Sometimes you become 80 percent of meteorologists,” the bells do jokes because they face their difficult challenges for the day. They suspect that a pitcher on Houston Astros may be specially inducted today, but they have a few other options that come with their own possibilities. With a tussle on the radar on the radar, it seems that the game can be suspended, which means it will have to reconfigure its whole team. He goes with Houston Pitcher, his lineup is locked
Because all decisions are made before any action is initiated, the real-life part of the tournament is more than one party. It is in the Playboy mansion, a venue many players have visited at least once or twice. Still it seems real to walk, though. The pool with the famous Groto has two bars with complimentary drinks, a fireplace with a game room, and a free game to play the old arcade games. There are peers, parrots and monkeys peering out of cages. There are several models running in the bath suite- but the whole party is very PG-13.
After going through the small bamboo forest, the group becomes ready for a photo in front of the mansion and then goes to the tent where the scoreboard shows the teams in real time at the top time. A Strikeout in New York, the theft of a theft in Texas, bouncing the user with a bat swing in Chicago and bouncing the board. Approximately 12 reminders is posted in every direction that one of these users will leave the amount of $ 100,000 to be rich.
There is not many secrets for hair, though. When lineups are posted, he sees that many other players worked as a single strategy – a strategy that many of them learned from them. This means that before the throwing the pitch first, it was very less likely to win big. Although it may seem that he is giving his secrets, he considers his strategies to share diversification and a part of the creation of brand equity in his portfolio.
A man with a wide chest from New Jersey comes on the knots in the tent. It is clear from the expression on his face that he is locked out for a bad start, he pulls his phone to show his lineup, it has come to know that both Houston Pitcher and four or five other players.
Hair smile
They say, “I can recognize fancy lob lineup in each other.”
As long as the bowls go to the tent of lunch for sausage and fried chicken, their team is close to the bottom and does not grow. She does not feel completely anxious. She eats in front of a line of flat screen and comes with a drink, each showing a different game. He thinks about it for another and decides that this is the first five minutes of baseball that have actually seen this season.
“This game is very boring,” he says. “It is very slow.”
He explains that this is very good for daily imagination, though. With so many statistical categories, too much data, there is a big advantage on the novices of professionals, sometimes they think about those people, too. He has met people who knew that they were going to lose money, and this is a strange feeling. When the conversation changes the fish-people who often take action on these sites- Bal and his friend Rose, the first rule of fantasy, says: Do not lose money if you do not want to lose it. The necklace is part of the game.
Just then, a player in Baltimore runs a single house below 7-0 in the game. The scoreboard in Ballpark varies from 7-1, but there is a change in the scoreboard in the tent and the small chance that leaves the bald ends. Even then, she seems indestructible, in fact, she was smiling and joking in the same way that she was in the morning. He runs with his friends to play a beanbag toss, then in the game room to play pool games. Soon they will return to Shotou to continue the vegetarian party.
Winning and losing seems to be the same but L.A. Have a chance to roam with your friends on a beautiful weekend? It feels good.


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